Japan's Fortunes

Expectations for a period of rising national fortunes in the future

The Fortunes of Japan are historically characterized by great change through a repetition of a rising phase and a declining phase on a XNUMX-year cycle. 


1. Rising phase of the Fortunes of Japan
< Approximately 40 years from 1868 (Meiji Restoration) to 1904 (the beginning of Russo-Japanese War) >

During the approximately XNUMX years, the Meiji Government, which brought a change in the feudal society in the Edo period, actively introduced Western culture for the civilization and enlightenment, and promoted industries through the policy of encouragement of new industry. Thus, Japan rapidly increased its national power. 


2. Declining phase of the Fortunes of Japan
< 40 years from 1905 (the end of Russo-Japanese War) to 1945 (the end of World War II) >

During the XNUMX years, as a result of the policy of increasing wealth, Western military technologies were introduced in Japan for the enhancement of the national prestige and the military was reinforced. Then, after repeated wars, "Japan lost everything" when the war ended in XNUMX. 


3. Rising phase of the Fortunes of Japan
< 40 years from 1945 to 1985 ("Plaza Accord") >

Over the past 40 years, postwar industry has rapidly recovered, and the Japanese economy, which started from zero at the end of the war, has grown and developed to become the second largest economy in the world in 1968, only 23 years later. It was a time when it reached its peak of prosperity.
1985 is said to be the year when Japanese people last looked up at the clouds above the slopes.


4. Declining phase of the Fortunes of Japan
< 40 years from 1985 (after the "Plaza Accord" was signed for promoting appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar) - present (2015) - to 2025 (prospect) >

In 1985, in order to eliminate the large-scale trade deficit/fiscal deficit of the United States and to prevent the Japanese economy from becoming a one-man-winner, the G5 at the time induced a coordinated "yen appreciation against the dollar". The ``Plaza Accord'' was concluded.
As a result, the exchange rate, which was 235 yen per US dollar in 1985, fell by about 20 yen per US dollar the day after the announcement, and one year later it was trading at 150 yen per US dollar, and 10 years later, in 1995, In 2011, the yen rapidly appreciated to 84 yen to the US dollar, and in 2011, the yen reached its highest level of 75 yen.
As a result, Japan suffered from a severe recession due to the strong yen, including a major blow to the export industry, a series of corporate and bank bankruptcies, and problems with non-performing loans at financial institutions, and the competitiveness of the Japanese economy was taken away all at once. On the other hand, immediately after the Plaza Accord, a bubble economy was triggered.
The period from 1985 to 2005, which lasted at least 20 years, was referred to as the ``lost 20 years,'' resulting in a deflationary spiral and a prolonged recession, including the bubble economy from 1986 to 1991 and its collapse. .

*[Bubble economy information]
The highest Nikkei Stock Average was 38,957 yen in 1989, when Japanese per capita income overtook that of the United States. Soaring land prices (it was possible to purchase the entire United States with just the price of land within Tokyo's Yamanote Line).


5. Period of rising national fortune (forecast)
< 40 years from 2025 to 2065 >

According to the 2015-year cycle theory, the Fortunes of Japan will greatly change from the declining phase to the rising phase in around XNUMX, in approximately XNUMX years from the present (XNUMX), and during approximately XNUMX years after that, Japan will experience great economic prosperity again. 

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